The Dynamics of Economic Structure in Aceh Tamiang Regency and Its Implications for Sectoral Competitiveness

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamics of Aceh Tamiang Regency’s economic structure during 2020–2024 and its implications for sectoral competitiveness using classical shift-share analysis (Dunn, 1960), decomposing GRDP growth into the regional share (Ns), proportional shift (Ps), and differential shift (Ds), complemented by Location Quotient (LQ) analysis to identify base sectors. Results show that Aceh Tamiang’s economy grew by 11.07 percent, slower than Aceh Province’s 16.87 percent, reducing the regency’s contribution to provincial GRDP from 4.57 to 4.34 percent. Both Ps and Ds were negative (IDR -120.16 billion and IDR -228.70 billion), reflecting a sectoral structure dominated by slow-growing industries and weak local competitiveness. Only the Other Services sector is progressive (Quadrant I), while Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery, the largest base sector (LQ 1.43), falls into Quadrant IV (lagging). Trade, Transportation and Warehousing, and Information and Communication show a favorable industry mix but weak competitiveness (Quadrant II). These findings underscore the urgency of structural transformation and productivity strengthening in base sectors, particularly downstream diversification of agricultural and mining outputs, to prevent Aceh Tamiang from falling further behind Aceh Province’s aggregate growth.