Modeling Crop Yield Variability through Machine Learning

Authors

  • Madumere Smart Onyemaechi AlvanIkoku Federal Univerrsity of Education Owerri, Imo State
  • Uzoma Peter Ozioma AlvanIkoku Federal Univerrsity of Education Owerri, Imo State
  • Ugo Chima AlvanIkoku Federal Univerrsity of Education Owerri, Imo State
  • Agada Bob Chile AlvanIkoku Federal Univerrsity of Education Owerri, Imo State
  • Odoemene. O Ijeoma AlvanIkoku Federal Univerrsity of Education Owerri, Imo State
  • Ihim Kingsley AlvanIkoku Federal Univerrsity of Education Owerri, Imo State

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59890/ijir.v4i2.142

Keywords:

Crop Yield Prediction, Yield Variability Modeling, Machine Leaning in Agriculture, Soil Properties and Nutrients

Abstract

Crop yield variability is a vital  issue for farmers, policymakers, and researchers. This study investigate the application of machine learning (ML) techniques to design  and predict crop yield variability. We exploit  a dataset containing historical climate, soil, and management factors to train and evaluate several ML models, including random forest, support vector machines, and neural networks. Our results show that ML models can effectively capture complex relationships between input features and crop yield, outperforming traditional linear regression models. The best-performing model, a random forest regressor, achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 10.2% and R-squared value of 0.85. We identify key factors influencing crop yield variability, including temperature, precipitation, and soil organic carbon content. Our findings demonstrate the potential of ML for improving crop yield prediction and informing decision-making in precision agriculture

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Published

2026-03-04